Demand for raw materials to fall soon

New technologies will have a significant impact on global demand for raw materials in the coming years and cause it to decline in the long term. Demand for crude oil, coal and iron ore is expected to peak as early as 2035. The reasons for this are the increasing automation and networking of processes in private households and industry, the trend toward electromobility, and the growing share of renewable energies in power generation. These are core findings of a new study by the McKinsey Global Institute (MGI) entitled "Beyond the supercycle: How technology is reshaping resources", which was released on Thursday.

The study shows that private households in particular will benefit from new technologies. Through the efficient and controlled use of electricity, heating and lighting, consumers worldwide can reduce their energy consumption costs by up to 20 percent.

At the same time, energy productivity in industry and the economy could increase by up to 70 percent. The consequences for the global economy are positive: According to the MGI, savings of up to $1.6 trillion are possible by 2035, depending on the type and scope of the new technologies used.

Expansion of renewable energies reduces demand for oil

The demand for petroleum will decrease mainly due to the development of more energy-efficient engines, the trend toward electromobility and autonomous driving, and the increasing use of car-sharing services, according to MGI. At the same time, technological improvements will lower the cost of wind and solar energy and make their use increasingly competitive. As a result, the share of renewable energy worldwide will rise from 4 percent today to about 36 percent by 2035, and demand for and use of fossil fuels will decline accordingly. For decades to come, only the demand for copper will continue to rise due to its use in electronic devices and in the construction industry.

McKinsey has published a Interactive graphic which explains the interrelationships in detail.