Energy crisis in Europe leads to cost and demand crisis

The Index of Global Trade Health analyzes anonymized transaction data flowing through Tradeshift's platform. Tradeshift defines transaction volume or supply chain activity as all trade activity and receivables from supplier payments. The index provides a timely overview of how external events impact business-to-business trade. Additional surveys and customer interviews supplement the report. The current index is available at the Tradeshift website.

Demand crisis pushes through

Global supply chain activity now fell by a further 5 points in the third quarter compared with the baseline. New orders in particular fell sharply as inflation-related costs and global uncertainty increase. Global order volume fell another 7 points below expected levels in the third quarter, following a 6-point decline in the previous quarter.

Manufacturing and T&L sector decline sharply

Manufacturing activity was 11 points below expected in the third quarter. Retail supplier activity was 9 points below the baseline, representing the slowest growth in 18 months. Slowing demand in these sectors is also leading to lower demand in the transportation and logistics sector. Activity in this sector fell 8 points short of expectations in the third quarter, marking the second consecutive quarter of declining growth.

"The good news is that supply chain bottlenecks are clearing and transportation costs are coming down," says Christian Lanng, CEO of Tradeshift. "The bad news is that this is largely a result of slowing demand. This trend now appears to be accelerating. This is especially hard on smaller suppliers who have simply traded pressure in one direction for an equally insidious kind of pressure in the other. If suppliers run into financial difficulties and give up, the problems that supply chains faced during the pandemic could be repeated."

Europe at the epicenter of the demand crisis

According to Tradeshift's index, Europe is at the epicenter of the recent downturn. Supply chain activity in the euro area fell another 6 points in the third quarter. The energy crisis triggered by Russia's invasion of Ukraine has wiped out consumer spending and put significant cost pressures on supply chains. In the United Kingdom, which faces similar challenges, trade activity fell by a further 5 points in the third quarter.

With winter approaching, even the slightest increase in energy demand anywhere in the world could result in entire sectors of the manufacturing industry in Europe having to shut down completely. Skyrocketing energy prices are also causing a cost of living crisis across the continent. Consumers are significantly curtailing their spending. A further deterioration in trade seems likely, though not yet entirely inevitable.

USA and China not so badly affected

In the USA, however, the picture is different. Momentum is slowing, but much more gently than in other parts of the world. Total transaction volume in the third quarter was only 2 points below the expected level. In China, local supply chain activity also grew at a relatively healthy rate in the third quarter, only 1 point below the expected range. However, activity levels in Chinese supply chains have been very erratic since the beginning of the year, and this is unlikely to change as long as the foreclosure policy remains in place.

"Supply chains in the U.S. appear to have stabilized," Lanng said. "As long as consumers continue to spend, they may even benefit from lower operating costs. Europe has a much more difficult road ahead. The energy crisis stems from a failure to balance access, sustainability and security of supply. As companies look at the resilience of their supply chains, maintaining that balance should be at the forefront."