Subdued optimism among large companies - insolvency fears among SMEs
While measures to contain the Corona pandemic are gradually being eased, it is becoming apparent how dramatic the consequences for SMEs actually are. One in five companies in Switzerland, Germany and Austria sees its existence threatened. In contrast, CFOs of larger companies express less concern about the consequences of Covid-19.
In an online flash survey conducted by Visable, the operator of the B2B platform "Wer liefert Was" (Who Supplies What), 8.7 percent of the SMEs surveyed said that they would be insolvent if the lockdown lasted even longer, and another 12.6 percent do not know how long they will be able to maintain their business. In short: fears of insolvency are on the rise. After all, a quarter of businesses (26 %) are counting on government support and hope to be able to secure their existence by drawing on government funds. This contrasts with 40.1 percent of companies that believe they can get off lightly and continue to exist after the crisis.
Increased short-time work and production downtime
The new survey, which was conducted between April 21 and 26, makes it clear that the situation for SMEs in the DACH region has worsened since the beginning of March: The number of companies sending their employees on short-time work has more than doubled in comparison: 40.5 percent of respondents now say they are working short-time. At the beginning of March, this figure was still 20.7 percent of companies in Switzerland.
More than one in four companies (25.5 %) is also affected by the complete closure of operations due to official orders. Production comes to a standstill in around eight percent of the companies surveyed. More than two-thirds (37.6 %) suffer enormous losses in sales. In some companies, despite all this, the working day is still going on: 22.4 percent of the companies are working with respirators in normal operation. 28.9 percent work from a home office.
No fear of insolvency among CFOs of larger companies
By contrast, according to a survey conducted by PwC, Swiss CFOs are becoming less concerned about the impact of COVID-19. In the current wave of the survey, only 47% of respondents expressed great concern, compared with 58% and 75% in the two previous rounds of so-called CFO Pulse surveys, which the accounting firm has conducted every two weeks since the start of the Corona crisis, according to PwC. Swiss CFOs (along with their counterparts in Germany and Denmark) still seem less concerned about the COVID-19 crisis than their global counterparts. Only 47% of respondents in Switzerland now believe the outbreak has the potential to significantly impact their business, compared to 70% of respondents in all areas surveyed.
However, compared to the previous two waves of the survey, the number of CFOs in Switzerland expecting a recovery within three months has dropped significantly - from 90% in the first wave and 72% in the second to just 50% in the latest round. Interestingly, CFOs in Germany have a more optimistic expectation that the economy will "recover," with over 70% of respondents expecting a recovery within three months.
Various effects of the crisis
The Corona pandemic is having the effect of accelerating digitization, especially in procurement processes. Visable reports significantly higher access numbers to its platforms. "The current state of emergency is proof that purchasing, procurement, but also marketing and sales must completely reposition themselves in the long term and become more digital in order to be prepared for the future," says Peter F. Schmid, CEO of Visable.
However, SMEs threatened in their existence could find salvation in an acquisition by a larger company. CFOs surveyed by PwC, for example, report an "increasing appetite for M&A activity" (17 % in Switzerland versus 11 % of the global sample. Swiss CFOs also express one of the highest levels of confidence in the long-term stability of their M&A strategy across the sample. It remains to be seen whether a wave of takeovers will really follow, especially since many SMEs currently suffering the consequences of the Corona pandemic are active in sectors that are already under constant economic pressure - low margins, saturated markets.
