New record of bankruptcies in Switzerland
Insolvencies are rising much faster than expected - both in Switzerland and worldwide. The world's leading credit insurer Allianz Trade has revised its forecasts upwards in its latest insolvency study. Globally, Allianz Trade expects bankruptcies to increase by 6 % in 2025 and a further 3 % in the coming year. The outlook for Switzerland has also deteriorated further.
"Switzerland is likely to set a new record for corporate insolvencies in 2025," warns Jan Möllmann, CEO of Allianz Trade Switzerland. "This is thought-provoking, as 8659 cases were already registered in 2024, the fourth consecutive increase (+18 % in 2024 compared to +8% in 2023). At this stage, we assume that the number of insolvencies will rise by at least 10 % to 9500 cases this year." The main players are the construction industry (+22 %), trade (+18 %), B2B services (+18 %) and the hospitality industry (+11 %).
This forecast must currently be treated with caution. It could be revised, as an amendment to the Insolvency Code has been in force in Switzerland since January 1. Unpaid invoices under public law - including VAT, social security contributions and taxes - are now being pursued in bankruptcy proceedings. The effects of this change must now be closely monitored. However, it is clear that Switzerland will only have moderate economic growth. At the same time, the continuing strength of the Swiss franc is a burden on exporting companies. In the event of a further escalation of the trade war, the situation with regard to corporate insolvencies would probably also deteriorate further in Switzerland.
In 2024, corporate insolvencies increased in four out of five countries
As expected, 2024 saw a further rapid and broad-based increase in corporate insolvencies. Most advanced economies started 2025 with corporate insolvencies already well above pre-pandemic levels. According to Allianz Trade, global insolvencies rose by 10 % last year (from +7 % in 2023), 12 % above the 2016-2019 average. Four out of five countries saw an increase in corporate insolvencies, with most recording a double-digit increase.
2025-2026: The rise in global corporate insolvencies is far from over
Looking to the future, the experts at Allianz Trade assume that global corporate insolvencies will rise again in 2025 and 2026. This would lead to five consecutive years of rising insolvencies from 2022 to 2026.
"We expect global corporate insolvencies to increase by 6 % in 2025 and 3 % in 2026," says Aylin Somersan Coqui, CEO of Allianz Trade. "This upward revision is due to the delayed easing of interest rates, increased uncertainty and weak demand. Relatively high interest rates could weigh on highly leveraged sectors and companies, as well as those facing particular financing challenges - such as the green transition, AI competition or supply chain frictions. At the same time, prolonged uncertainty could lead to companies taking a wait-and-see approach and holding back, resulting in lower activity to the detriment of already struggling companies. Meanwhile, there are also other risk factors, such as the continued economic momentum and the clearing of the insolvency backlog following the Covid crisis. The business environment has rarely been so complex and volatile, and companies should remain vigilant to avoid the risk of default."
This increase in global corporate insolvencies could also have a significant impact on jobs: according to Allianz Trade, 2.3 million jobs worldwide will be directly at risk in 2025 (+120k compared to 2024), before a smaller increase (+30k) in 2026. Western Europe (1.1 million) would lead this global figure, ahead of North America (450 thousand), although this represents a 10-year high for both regions. Asia would follow (320 thousand) with a roughly stable annual figure since 2022. Globally, the sectors most at risk are construction, retail and services.
Risk of high interest rates and a possible trade war could drive global insolvencies even higher
The expansion of lending can help to reduce the number of corporate insolvencies. It provides companies with liquidity to manage debt, maintain operations and invest in growth. Access to credit enables companies to refinance liabilities, bridge revenue shortfalls and avoid bankruptcy, especially during economic downturns.
Although Allianz Trade expects interest rates to fall in both Europe and the USA, inflation risks, particularly in the USA, could jeopardize interest rate cuts. If borrowing costs rise, this could make access to credit more difficult. As a result, credit growth would slow, financial conditions would tighten and the default risk for highly leveraged companies would increase.
However, according to Allianz Trade, the biggest upside risk is the looming trade war. "Our insolvency forecast could deteriorate if the European economy performs weaker than expected and momentum slows, resilience in the APAC region is weaker, headwinds from China become stronger and the outlook for the US deteriorates further," says Maxime Lemerle, Head of Insolvency Research at Allianz Trade. "Geopolitics could also be a major factor for turbulence, with ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and Russia as well as in the Middle East, tensions in the South China Sea and political uncertainty over Taiwan. A full-blown trade war would increase our insolvency forecast by a further +2.1 percentage points and +4.8 percentage points. This means that global corporate insolvencies would rise by 7.8 % and 8.3 % in 2025 and 2026 respectively. For 2025-2026, this would mean 6800 additional cases in the US and 9100 in Western Europe."
To the complete insolvency report from Allianz Trade
