New hires could pick up again in Switzerland in the fall

42 % of Swiss employers are confident that they will return to pre-crisis hiring levels within a year, with the most optimistic (26 %) believing this will be the case by the end of 2020. This is according to the latest ManpowerGroup Labor Market Barometer. The survey behind it was conducted from July 15-28, 2020.

"Despite the uncertainty caused by the health situation in Switzerland and most other countries around the world, Swiss employers are showing us that we can have confidence in the solidity of the domestic market. Although layoffs and restructurings have already occurred, the results of our survey give us hope that these might not be as massive as some scenarios led us to fear. The survey results suggest that the labor market is regaining momentum. We have also developed solutions for those companies that need to rethink their HR strategy," says Gianni Valeri, Managing Director of Manpower Switzerland.

The consequences of the health crisis for the world of work

In addition to the usual questions about employment trends, this survey asked employers specifically about the longer-term impact of the healthcare crisis. According to the survey, just over a quarter (26 %) expect their companies to return to hiring dynamics similar to those in the years leading up to the crisis by the end of 2020. More than a third (39 %) of respondents expect to never return to pre-Covid-19 employment levels. Regarding employees who are on reduced hours because of the crisis, just under one-third (32 %) of employers intend to return them to their original employment levels within three to six months, while 3 % expect to have to lay off some of their workforce. When asked about the impact on work practices, more than half (57 %) plan to offer their employees more opportunities to do some of their work from home, compared to 39 % globally. Just under a fifth (17 %) of Swiss employers are even considering allowing their employees to spend all of their time working from home. Likewise, one-fifth (20 %) of employers surveyed are considering increasing the number of part-time positions available to retain employees.

Encouraging forecasts in Espace Mittelland and Zurich

Four of the seven regions report positive hiring prospects for fall 2020, with employers in the Espace Mittelland (+6 %) and the Zurich region (+6 %) the most optimistic. These two regions also report a strong increase compared to the previous quarter (+11 and +17 percentage points). In Ticino (-2 %), the negative figure is offset by a significant increase (+12 percentage points) compared with the previous quarter. The Lake Geneva region (-1 %) also reports an improvement on the previous quarter (+10 percentage points). Quarter-on-quarter, there is no decline in any region, while year-on-year, no region shows an increase. Compared with the same period in 2019, the figures remain low, with declines in six of the seven regions. Northwestern Switzerland (-5 %) shows the largest decrease (-11 percentage points), and its outlook for this quarter is also the weakest.

Significant recovery in new hires in the hospitality industry

The most confident employers are those in Other Services (+7 %) and Financial and Business Services (+3 %). In contrast, employers in the five other sectors expect to cut jobs. This is especially the case in manufacturing (-5 %): while its numbers improve from the previous quarter (+5 percentage points), it reports the sharpest year-over-year decline (-14 percentage points). Employers in the three sectors of trade, construction, and hospitality (-3 %) are cautious about hiring in the fall. The hospitality sector shows the most impressive performance, both quarter-over-quarter (+33 percentage points) and year-over-year (+17 percentage points).

Employment prospects vary depending on company category

Of the four company categories surveyed***, two are pointing to growth and two to decline. Medium-sized employers (+6 %) are the most optimistic and also show the strongest increase (+23 percentage points) from the previous quarter, followed by those in large companies (+4 %). Small businesses present the most pessimistic outlook (-6 %) and the strongest quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year decreases (-1 and -12 percentage points, respectively). The forecast of microenterprises amounts to -3 %.

Similar forecasts in neighboring countries

In neighboring countries, employers are slowly regaining confidence. In France (+3 %), the recovery is based primarily on positive prospects in the construction and financial and business services sectors. In Germany (+2 %), five of the seven sectors report positive hiring figures, especially the financial and business services sector and construction. By contrast, manufacturing is not doing well. In Italy (+1 %), the trade sector is the most dynamic.

Source: ManpowerGroup