Swiss retail trade records losses in the first half of 2022

The Swiss retail sector can look back on a mixed first half of 2022. According to the GfK Market Monitor, the non-food segment recorded a decline in the first half of 2022 and is 3.0% below the positive double-digit result of the previous year, which was impacted by the Corona crisis. Food/nearfood also declined by 7.4%. Still impacted by last year's lockdowns and reopenings for stores and non-daily products, the non-food result suffered larger losses, especially in March and April (last year's reopenings on March 1, 2021, led to particularly high deposits). May and June 2022 show a leveling off in this regard.

Different developments in the Swiss retail trade

However, the following markets recorded growth in the first half of 2022: The leisure segment, for example, continues to grow, and in the sports segment, e-boards stand out particularly positively. Also on trend are product groups such as sports nutrition, sports eyewear, camping articles and, over a longer period, e-bikes. In addition, increased travel activity continues to drive the recovery in the "luggage" product group. Clearly leading the way in terms of cumulative growth, the fashion market is recording considerable growth in the first half of 2022 and continues to recover in all areas.

By contrast, the home furnishings market and DIY are declining as of the end of June 2022. Home electronics is also declining. March and April were the months most affected, with a flattening out already apparent in May and June 2022. The greatest saturation is evident in cell phones, increasingly due to availability bottlenecks, especially for luxury devices. Saturation is still evident in some of the top performers of previous years, such as video game consoles and flat-screen TVs. However, some product groups are currently experiencing overstocking, which is leading to increased price pressure. Boosted by increasing travel activity, the photo sector is achieving growth. Online shopping is declining compared with the high prior-year results and is down 8 percent on a cumulative basis at the end of the first half of 2022.

Subdued economic forecasts

The economic forecasts are less good than last time. The GfK expert group has lowered its growth forecast for Switzerland to 2.6 percent in 2022 and to 1.9 percent in 2023 (sportevent-adjusted GDP). According to the expert group, the Swiss economy got off to a positive start in 2022, but the outlook for the international environment has clouded over. Risks for the global economy emanate in particular from the war in Ukraine and developments in China, the expert group says. The Swiss Federal Statistical Office also expects annual inflation of 2.5 percent in 2022 and 1.4 percent in 2023. By contrast, developments on the labor market remain positive: an average unemployment rate of 2.1 percent is expected for 2022; for 2023, the Federal Statistical Office (FSO) anticipates an average unemployment rate of 2.0 percent.

Source and further information: GfK