Export barometer: Export sentiment on record course

Two-thirds of all SMEs surveyed expect exports to continue rising in the second quarter of 2018. This is also confirmed by the Credit Suisse Export Barometer. This is once again well within the growth zone, underpinning the optimistic export forecast of plus 4 % for 2018. Cyclical sectors such as MEM and chemicals are likely to see the strongest growth, while the pharmaceuticals sector is expected to feel the economic upturn to a lesser extent. Despite protectionist tendencies and increasing trade barriers, one in two SMEs assesses international growth opportunities as good today as they did five years ago.

Sascha Jucker, an economist at Credit Suisse, says: "With MEM and chemicals, the sectors that have suffered most from the strong franc in recent years are showing the strongest growth. The fact that exports as a whole are growing even without major growth impulses from the important pharmaceutical sector is very positive." Alberto Silini, Head of Consulting at Switzerland Global Enterprise (S-GE), notes, "Swiss SMEs are not intimidated by trade barriers and protectionism. This is evidence of great optimism and shows how robust the growth trend is this year."

Germany remains most important export market

Germany remains by far the most important export market. According to the Credit Suisse Export Barometer, 83 % of the SMEs surveyed intend to export goods or services to Germany in the next six months. France follows in second place with 66 %. Next comes the U.S. with 54 %, Austria with 53 % and Italy with 49 %. 46 % of the Swiss SMEs surveyed plan to export to the Netherlands in the next six months, 44 % to China and 42 % to the United Kingdom. Scandinavia follows with 41 %. The picture also remains clear in terms of the importance of export destinations: in terms of volume, Germany comes out on top with 56%.

Of the SMEs surveyed for the Export Barometer, 16 % said they intended to become newly active in Iran in the next six months. South Korea and the Gulf states are also attractive, with 13 % and 11 % of the mentions respectively. China, Saudi Arabia and Canada each want to export 10 %. The USA follows with just 8 %. Compared with the last survey, this figure has practically halved.

SMEs expect higher trade barriers

While the global economic environment and thus the international growth potential remain positive, trade barriers are increasing worldwide. Swiss SMEs are also actively aware of this development in recent years. Half assess today's growth opportunities to be exactly the same as five years ago, but the other half stated that it is more difficult to grow internationally today. They cited unstable exchange rates as the main reason, but also increasing protectionist tendencies in many countries, more complicated customs duties and the growing diversity of norms and standards for products.

But how can Swiss SMEs grow internationally despite trade barriers? This is the topic of this year's Foreign Trade Forum organized by Switzerland Global Enterprise on April 26, 2018 at Messe Zürich. At the major annual meeting of the export industry, SMEs will receive valuable tips and can draw on the cumulative expertise of 600 participating companies and experts on international growth.

Sources: Credit Suisse / Switzerland Global Enterprise