Decarbonizing the energy system by 2050 could save trillions of dollars

A new study by researchers at Oxford University shows a gigantic savings potential that could be achieved by decarbonizing the energy system by 2050. The researchers call it a win-win-win scenario, in which a rapid transition to clean energy results in lower energy system costs than a fossil fuel system. At the same time, more energy could be provided to the global economy and access to energy could be expanded to more people around the world. By increasing the use of solar and wind energy, batteries, electric vehicles and clean fuels such as green hydrogen (from renewable electricity), 55 percent more energy services could be made available worldwide. According to the researchers, this scenario is realistic.

Long too hesitant attitude of companies and governments

Study lead author Dr. Rupert Way, a postdoctoral researcher at Oxford's Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment, says, "Previous models predicting high costs for the transition to carbon-free energy have discouraged companies from investing. As a result, governments have also failed to enact policies that accelerate the energy transition and reduce dependence on fossil fuels. Yet the cost of clean energy has fallen sharply over the past decade, and much faster than the models expected." The latest research showed that the cost of key green technologies will continue to fall. "The faster we move forward, the more we will save. Accelerating the transition to renewables now is the best solution, not only for the planet but also for energy costs," Rupert Way said.

Decarbonization: Anything but costly

The researchers analyzed thousands of conversion cost scenarios generated by large energy models. Behind them are data on 45 years of solar energy costs, 37 years of wind energy costs and 25 years for battery storage. The researchers found that actual solar energy costs fell twice as fast as the most ambitious projections in these models, showing that previous models over the past 20 years have greatly overestimated the future costs of key clean energy technologies compared to reality. "There is a widespread misconception that the shift to clean, green energy will be painful, costly and involve sacrifice for all of us - but that is simply wrong," says Professor Doyne Farmer, who leads the team that conducted the study at the Institute for New Economic Thinking at Oxford Martin School. That's because renewable energy is already cheaper than fossil fuels in many situations, he says, and that trend will continue. "If we accelerate the transition, they will become cheaper even faster. If we completely replace fossil fuels with clean energy by 2050, we will save trillions of dollars," Professor Farmer said.

Further price reductions expected for batteries and hydrogen

The study also shows that the cost of key storage technologies such as batteries and hydrogen electrolysis is also likely to fall dramatically. At the same time, the cost of nuclear power has risen steadily over the past five decades, making it highly unlikely that it will be competitive with the falling costs of renewables and storage. Professor Farmer adds, "The world is facing a simultaneous inflation crisis, a national security crisis, and a climate crisis, all caused by our dependence on expensive, unsafe, and polluting fossil fuels with fluctuating prices. This study shows that ambitious policies that dramatically accelerate the transition to a clean energy future as quickly as possible are not only urgently needed for climate reasons, but can also save the world trillions in future energy costs and give us a cleaner, cheaper, and more energy secure future."

Meeting the energy crisis with decarbonization

Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the cost of fossil energy has skyrocketed, leading to inflation around the world. This study, conducted before the current crisis, takes into account such fluctuations using more than a century of fossil fuel price data. The current energy crisis, it says, underscores the study's findings and highlights the risks of continuing to rely on expensive, uncertain fossil fuels. The study also points out that the response to the crisis should be to accelerate decarbonization as quickly as possible, as this will benefit both the economy and the planet.

Source: Techexplore.com