Swiss SME exports 2025: Cautious optimism despite global uncertainties
Export sentiment among Swiss SMEs remains above the growth threshold and is therefore still "cautiously optimistic". The main concerns at the moment are the currency risks, the relationship with the EU that needs to be clarified and the uncertain effects of the change of president in the USA. In this phase, Europe, which is already crucial to the success of the export industry, is becoming even more important, while the development of new markets is playing a more subordinate role.
Swiss SMEs are cautiously optimistic about the future. Although export sentiment, which is determined by Switzerland Global Enterprise in a semi-annual survey of export-oriented Swiss SMEs, fell slightly from 62.8 to 57.1 points in the last six months, it is still well above the growth threshold of 50 points. After a phase of high confidence, which followed the brief but severe pandemic-related slump, the sentiment value has been hovering around the 60-point mark for two and a half years.
Expected increase in exports over the course of the year
For the next six months, almost every second company surveyed (48%) expects export growth, every third (33%) expects stagnation and 19% expects a decline. For 2025 as a whole, SMEs are slightly more optimistic about their growth prospects: 59% expect growth and only 11% expect a decline. One in six companies anticipates growth of over 10%.
Currency risks by far the biggest concern
Currency risks, which currently concern 56% of companies, are likely to be among the main factors hampering growth in the next six months. In second place is the relationship with the EU, which is receiving more attention again with the conclusion of the bilateral treaty negotiations (40%).
Trade barriers and protectionism (36%), tensions between the US and China (34%) and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine (33%) are also the biggest concerns. This shows that the global uncertainty about the consequences of the change of president in the USA is also affecting Switzerland. It is encouraging that more than half of the companies consider themselves flexible enough to be able to react to any political and economic changes.
In contrast, energy and commodity prices, the shortage of skilled workers and inflation are becoming significantly less important.
Europe is becoming even more important for Switzerland
Germany remains the most important export destination, to which 81% of SMEs intend to deliver goods in the next six months. It is followed by the other neighboring countries France, Italy and Austria as well as the USA, each with between 55% and 60%. At the same time, some European sales markets are making significant gains in the other ranks, further increasing Europe's dominance. The USA and China are the only non-European markets in the top 12, while India, Japan and the ASEAN countries are among the fastest-growing non-European markets.
India is on trend
In view of these global uncertainties, a whopping 41% of the companies surveyed do not want to become active in new countries in the coming months. Companies that nevertheless want to expand are increasingly focusing on India: The subcontinent is now the world's most important new market for Switzerland, which is likely due in large part to the negotiated free trade agreement. India is followed by the USA and the Gulf States.
