ZHAW researchers calculate tick risk potential
The interactive app "Tick" has collected more than 24,000 data on tick contacts over the past five years. Researchers at the Zurich University of Applied Sciences (ZHAW) are using this data to develop a model for predicting tick risk potential.
The fact that the increased outdoor activity during the Corona crisis probably leads to more frequent contact with ticks is illustrated, for example, by the newly developed app data at Easter. In 2020, a similar number of reports were received as in the tick record year 2018. Despite the absence of the Easter traffic jam on the Gotthard, there was not the expected slump in tick observations.
The ZHAW researchers used data collected over five years to calculate "where and how often humans and ticks meet in Switzerland over the course of the year," explains the ZHAW in a Communication.
Their researchers suspect that the coronavirus pandemic will indirectly affect the pattern of tick contacts. As ZHAW researcher Werner Tischhauser explains, the data indicate "that the changed pattern of outdoor activity leads to more frequent tick contact in local recreation areas than in previous years."
Context between diseases and mobility behavior
Researchers are currently working to calculate how the change in mobility behavior of the Swiss during the pandemic will affect the entire tick season this year. They want to predict the tick risk potential for a period of two weeks. This would allow teachers, for example, to minimize the risk of ticks during a forest project week, writes ZHAW.
Protection against the tick-borne TBE viruses is also important in Corona times, ZHAW further explains in the release. "Individuals in at-risk groups for COVID-19 should first consult with their attending physician by phone for TBE vaccination," Tischhauser recommends. "Those who are getting TBE vaccine for the first time or who want to refresh vaccine protection after ten years should do so immediately."
Making tick hotspots visible
For the first time, ZHAW researchers were able to show where and how often people and ticks meet in Switzerland over the course of the year. The spatiotemporal animation is based on data from the "Tick" prevention app, which was entered by users from March 2015 until the end of 2019. Based on the more than 24,000 tick observation data, the spatial distribution of human contacts with ticks was calculated using the "Kernel Density Estimation" method for the period of 30 days and the average values of the last five years. A current research project will also show in detail how the changed travel and leisure behavior will affect the entire 2020 tick season. This is because ZHAW researchers are using geographic information systems, data science and artificial intelligence to analyze data collected via the "tick" app over a two-year period in order to develop a spatiotemporal risk model. This should be able to predict the tick risk potential for the next two weeks, comparable to a weather forecast. It should help teachers, for example, to reduce the risk of ticks to a minimum as early as the planning phase of a forest project week.
