Energy policy: Switzerland could lose position
Without an electricity agreement with the EU, Switzerland will lose its influence in European energy policy, warn researchers at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Lausanne and the University of St.Gallen.
It could become more difficult for Switzerland to exert influence in European energy policy. Moreover, the expansion of renewable energies depends primarily on united political support at home, emphasize Swiss researchers who point out possible energy deficits in the "National Energy Research Program".
As part of the National Energy Research Program, scientists from the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Lausanne (EPFL) and the University of St.Gallen (HSG), the question of what Switzerland would face if negotiations on an electricity agreement failed was explored. Now, in a Communication informed about where the advantages and disadvantages for Switzerland lie. According to her, Switzerland would face "uncertain but in any case serious consequences".
Keyword: EU Single Market
With the expansion of the EU's internal energy market, Switzerland has already lost influence, writes the Swiss National Science Foundation SNSF. "Switzerland has become more dependent on the EU, and vice versa is less and less true," Matthias Finger of EPFL is quoted as saying in the statement. "Without an electricity agreement, Switzerland is threatened with further exclusion in the regulation of central energy matters."
Without an agreement, Switzerland would also face a higher trade deficit in the energy sector, the report continues. This could rise to around CHF 1 billion by 2030. Trade and balancing of the grid by Swissgrid will also become much more difficult without an agreement.
Uncertain, but in any case serious effects
Against this background, the researchers investigated the political and economic effects of two contrasting scenarios: a "direct Europeanization" via a bilateral electricity agreement and an "indirect Europeanization" without an electricity agreement (for example, through autonomous adaptation to the European legal framework).
- Regardless of the scenario chosen, Switzerland's security of supply is sufficient at least until 2030. However, no state, including Switzerland, can rely on electricity imports: An agreement facilitates imports but does not guarantee the availability of imported energy.
- Even without an agreement, physical connections with the European electricity market will remain, but trading and balancing of the grid by Swissgrid will become much more difficult.
- Without an agreement, the Swiss energy sector as a whole will face a higher trade deficit of several hundred million Swiss francs per year up to one billion CHF in 2030. Consumers will have to bear a significant premium on electricity prices compared to their European neighbors, which could reach CHF 15-20 per MWh by 2030.
- The simulations showed no significant impact of an electricity agreement on the expansion of renewable energies in Switzerland. However, without an electricity agreement, there could be investments in gas-fired power plants in Switzerland, especially if the expansion of renewable energies is not strongly supported politically and thus forced.
Impact on renewables?
By contrast, the researchers do not see a direct impact of an electricity agreement on the expansion of renewable energies. "With or without an electricity agreement, an energy policy that is geared toward the long term and beyond the electricity sector is crucial for the energy industry, overall economic development and the achievement of climate targets," Finger says. "However, such a policy is lacking." Peter Hettich, co-author of the research program, puts the effects on the expansion of renewable energies in concrete terms: "Today, individual issues tend to be regulated on an ad hoc basis. For many investors in renewable energy, however, reliable framework conditions are now more important than the question of financial support."
(Matthias P. Finger and Paul van Baal: "CH-EU - Beziehungen unter Strom", Chronos Verlag, to be published in 2020)
Further points on the "National Energy Research Program" can be found at here
